I was asked by students, residents and business owners, and even a seasoned Police Officer if Christchurch was going to suffer another major quake during September...
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Last year, after the September 4 quake, I ran the data base of all my clients in the Canterbury region through my software to assess if there was a correlation between the quakes and the lives of all my clients.
The results were amazing. There was a 98% strike rate. Then when I looked ahead to see if there were any similar 'markers', February stood out, now I had a problem.
You see, I had two consecutive, extended training weekend courses to do, in Christchurch City during February and I didn't like what I saw during my travel period. I had to fly down on Friday the 18th February and return on the 28th to Auckland; i.e. one 11 day trip.
I decided I would do two return flights to break the trip as I was not happy with the week of the 22nd to the 24th February, and so my itinerary was booked as follows;
Fly to Christchurch on the 18th and return to Auckland on the 21st;
Fly again to Christchurch on the 25th and return to Auckland on the 28th.
I am glad I did, as I still have a cash register receipt from shopping I had done in buildings that completely collapsed on the 22nd, the day after I flew out. Was this a coincidence? Not as I see it.
More recently I was asked to travel to Christchurch this September to be a speaker at a public festival that had been cancelled earlier this year due to the devastation from the February earthquake.
There really wasn't time for me to prepare for this, and the numbers are not really stacking up for an earthquake free time, so I declined the offer and will wait till March 2012, when things will be less active.
According to my calculations, the harmonics of mid to late September just don't look good for Christchurch, especially around the 22nd.
Now, getting back to the research I had done between September 2010, till now; here is what I found;
Potential 'Red Flag Alerts' affect Christchurch in February 2010 (as it most certainly did), and then April, June, July, September and November.
I also wrote a story about Japan's 2011's major earthquake and covered events that were to unfold (and they did) about the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
After the quake, there was a concern the reactors may have been affected. My story said they were 'dead' already, and days later, they blew up! My article is available under the archives link above.
Then in early August 2011, a news report was issued that the geotechnic scientists in Japan warned there is to be another major quake in the Fukushima region during September.
As September is now here and there have been a few rumbles of a respectable size in Christchurch already, I feel my concerns about the 22nd of this month may be spot on, (I hope not).
My probability theory, is based on fluctuating human emotions. This is exactly how the Share Market (a well known fact). Hence, by measuring the (collective) emotional change Indicators of the Christchurch people on my data base, I am able to postulate when emotions run high and are possible Indicators on specific dates.
When I looked at the reasonably BIG shakes recorded since last September, I made assessments I felt were in line with marked earth quake activity.
Here are the major quakes recorded to date:
2010 - 7.1 earthquake on the 4th September.
2011
February: 22nd-6.3 (nearly 200 people died)
June: 6th -5.5; 13th - 6.3; 14th - 4.7; 17th - 4.5; 21st - 5.4
August: 31st - 4.8
July 22nd - 5.1
September 2nd - 4.9; 11th - 4.5; 18th - 3.2
I am not discounting an increase in seismic activity leading to the 22nd, nor a few days after, as this date has many similarities with the Indicators of the other major quakes.
Ken Ring (Predict weather.com) has published potential quake activity (due to planetary influences) between the 18th and 24th September.
From where I sit, anyone who has knowledge based on a sound track record, as he does (read his publications), will at least respect what this man has achieved in his field. He has put in decades of work, observations and research.
Ignorance by scientists may be bliss, but it is also dangerous as the following story reveals.
ITALIAN SEISMOLOGISTS
"Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in the earthquake that struck the city of L'Aquila on 6 April 2009.
"The seven were on a committee that had been tasked with assessing the risk associated with recent increases in seismic activity in the area. Following a committee meeting just a week before the quake, some members of the group assured the public that they were in no danger.
"In the aftermath of the quake, which killed 309 people, many citizens said that these reassurances were the reason they did not take precautionary measures, such as leaving their homes.
See the story < http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/05/italian_seismologists_to_be_tr.html >
Sound familiar? This would clearly indicate that "qualified scientists" can be seriously wrong.
AND NOW - THE RUGBY WORLD CUP 2011 in NEW ZEALAND
News reports announced today that the All Black team are training in Christchurch for three days in September; the 19th - 21st. I hope they are not affected by any quake activity whilst they are there, yet some of the team show they are in a potential 'Red Flag Zone' according to my work and assessments.
FLETCHER BUILDING:
Then there's Fletcher Building Industries Limited:
This Company was registered on the 1st October 2010, 28 days after the September 4th Earthquake in Christchurch. There was a tender put out for the rebuild of Christchurch City after the earthquake, and Fletcher Building Limited landed the tender.
Interestingly, Fletcher's Company (ACCORDING TO MY CHARTING) does not show any headway with their rebuild. This is likely due to the inability to get the required building insurance, as no insurance company is prepared to cover re-building because of the ongoing seismic activity in the region.
Fletcher's share price has been slashed and I don't see them coming up for air for another one and a half years.
IN CLOSING:
In my work when, "connected people or businesses," have a collapse in any part of their circle, then a chain reaction follows. Like a house of cards, when a base cards falls, everything above is affected.
Christchurch people, be alert and use common sense during the rest of September.
It is my belief, there is still approximately another 15 months before Christchurch can really start to rebuild, thereafter, all is on the mend; well, we'll see anyway.
Peter Vaughan