NZ Elections 2011 to 2014 - Predicting History once more.
On 20th October 2011 I posted the story below. I've reproduced it so you can see how my predictions have unfolded.
In hindsight, reviewing the past is easy, but predicting the future is a skill and I'm happy to say it is now a science and anyone can learn it.
Here's my re-post from Oct 2011...
Today at a meeting over breakfast, an associate asked; 'who's the pick for the Elections this year, Key or Goff, and what about Winston Peters?'
The General Elections next month may well result in a foregone conclusion, the National Party will succeed another 3 year term. But the tide changes significantly thereafter especially as Prime Minister John Key may no longer be at the helm.
John Key will lead the present government for the 2012-2014 term but he will be under an ever increasing period of pressure.
However, as usual, many of the pre election promises expressed by the party in my opinion do not hold water especially the financials, therefore people should remain aware that Governments say "anything" at election time to sway the voters.
John Key has had a very difficult time, last year (2010) and not just because of the Christchurch earthquake in September / December, but also possibly because the GNS scientists knew there was going to be another major quake in the same vicinity and Government appointed scientists felt it was not in the best interest of the people (???) to tell them "it's likely there is still a big one coming!"
It landed in February and the central city was destroyed, 183 people died, homes and businesses were wiped out. It was revealed the Government knew but decided to keep the people in the dark. Disgusting!
I am glad there was an outcry when the public learned the GNS scientist knew of the danger but kept their mouths shut. Life is not all about commerce and tax taking Mr Nick Smith, Conservation Minister!
Back to Election Predictions:
2012 will see Key under a lot more pressure than he anticipates. The stress of managing an economy under increasing financial pressure and other matters that arise as they do, will see him at the 2014 election time not looking too good at all. His Profile clearly indicates a significant change in his direction, like a startled bird taking flight; watch this space.
PHIL GOFF - Leader of the Opposition:
Goff has had an extremely difficult four years (2008 to 2011) and there's a lot of talk about his being replaced as leader of the Labour Party, and 'the talk is right' according to my predictions. Phil is running out of steam and will not be in politics for much longer.
Since Phil turned 58 he has begun to feel the weight of more and more pressure and is to experience more difficulties. From Feb/Mar 2013 mounting tension is likely to affect him such that he will need to think about rising problems that are affecting his personal life.
According to his Profile, by October 2014 Phil will have 'shrunk away' as he's not really fit to fight in the ring of politics. I speculate the stress of the political arena could become detrimental to his health. Its just not worth it and sometimes it's best to call it a day.
He should do what Deborah Coddington (former 2IC of the Act Party) did when Rodney Hide took over; get out while you have a choice, its better to enjoy your family and friends while you can.
Some time back I made comment that Peters was on the return to enter the political arena as a formidable opponent. He is not a person to turn your back on and, wait... what's that rustling in the bushes?
Winston will gain his second-wind and will quietly push his way back to the front lines as a strong political force and he should not be treated lightly or with disregard.
His Profile clearly indicates he's on a roll. I calculate there is pressure mounting in the business world and the people of New Zealand will be feeling very uneasy about what National and Labour are doing to the country, I can see evidence that both National, and Labour's performance will have the public looking elsewhere for sanity and stability.
My view is Winston has a good chance getting into the 2014 election. For two years he will push his wheelbarrow in the face of the main Parties. However post his 70 birthday in 2015 he looks to have some problem arise and he'd better watch his health. One way or another he is on his way up, but for how long, and based on an event in 2015 his Profile indicates he will need to pay attention to himself.
Well, the countdown is upon us here in New Zealand. The date of the election is set for the 26th November 2011. National for another term.
Regards, Peter Vaughan - Profiler